铜价 结构性牛市可期

Group 1 - The current copper prices have fully absorbed optimistic expectations, and potential technical adjustments may occur if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts, downstream demand weakens, or mine restarts exceed expectations [1][4] - Since Q4 2025, global copper prices have continuously reached historical highs, with the Shanghai copper futures surpassing 94,500 yuan/ton and LME copper prices hitting $12,000/ton, both showing an annual increase of over 30% [1] - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to multiple factors, including supply bottlenecks, the release of financial attributes, and policy disturbances, rather than a single supply-demand imbalance [1][2] Group 2 - Global copper mine supply is facing systemic pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of approximately 4.7% in 2025 due to incidents in major mines, leading to an expected supply gap of 150,000 to 300,000 tons [2] - The average grade of copper mines has decreased by 30% since 1990, and the average annual growth rate of new projects is expected to be less than 2% over the next five years, exacerbating long-term supply pressures [2] - The global copper smelting sector is experiencing significant challenges, with processing fees at historically low levels, leading to production losses and reduced capacity among smelting companies [2] Group 3 - Traditional consumption sectors for copper, such as construction and home appliances, are showing weakness, while the renewable energy and AI industries are emerging as core growth drivers [3] - The annual copper consumption in photovoltaic and wind power installations exceeds 1.8 million tons, and the copper usage in electric vehicles is three times that of traditional vehicles [3] - Global copper inventory is showing significant regional disparities, with COMEX inventory surging to 400,000 tons (a 300% year-on-year increase), while LME Asian warehouse inventory has dropped below 150,000 tons [3] Group 4 - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with a projected supply-demand gap potentially expanding to 300,000 tons due to limited new capacity releases [4] - Demand growth driven by AI data centers and global grid upgrades is expected to average between 5% and 10% annually, which may offset declines in traditional consumption sectors [4] - In a low inventory environment, any supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts or policy changes could lead to a structural bull market in copper prices, potentially reaching the range of 100,000 to 110,000 yuan/ton [4]