期货日报：基本面和情绪面共振 铂、钯期价再度大涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium futures prices is attributed to a combination of fundamental supply shortages and heightened market sentiment, with prices increasing over 20% since December 12 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 18, platinum futures (PT2606) closed at 542.65 CNY/gram, up 5.32%, while palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 476.6 CNY/gram, up 6.99% [1]. - The price of platinum and palladium has risen over 20% since December 12 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the price increase is driven by a combination of overseas supply shortages and a bullish sentiment in the metal sector [2]. - The World Platinum Investment Council indicates that the platinum market is expected to experience a supply shortage for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap exceeding 20 tons [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where production is constrained by long-term investment shortages, power shortages, aging infrastructure, and extreme weather [3]. - Domestic investment demand for platinum is expected to surge by 100% year-on-year in 2025, making it the largest retail investment market globally [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that while platinum prices may have strong support due to structural demand expansion, there are potential risks of price corrections if gold prices decline significantly [4]. - For palladium, the supply-demand balance has shifted from long-term shortages to potential oversupply, with forecasts indicating a surplus of 16.9 tons by 2026 [3][4].