期货日报：贵金属市场短期存在利空 长期“牛市”逻辑未改

Group 1 - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some varieties face potential negative disturbances due to changing macroeconomic conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may disrupt market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially affecting precious metal prices [2] - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing gold purchases by central banks, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market, with gold prices showing a strong correlation with the total debt of major economies [2] Group 2 - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, uncertainty in monetary policies, and geopolitical risks [3] - The People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold reserves since November 2024, providing significant physical demand support for gold prices [3] - Key support and resistance levels for gold and silver prices are identified, with gold at $3900-$4100 per ounce support and $4400-$4600 per ounce resistance, and silver at $49-$54 per ounce support and $63-$72 per ounce resistance [3] Group 3 - The platinum and palladium markets are experiencing long-term support due to their emerging "new energy metal" attributes, with global supply expected to tighten by 2026 [4] - Factors such as high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment are contributing to slow growth in platinum production, while demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards [4] - The palladium market faces pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, with expectations of a shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand balance by 2026 [4] - Both platinum and palladium are undergoing significant changes in their supply-demand dynamics due to the energy structure transition, necessitating close monitoring of short-term disturbances [4]