销量腰斩，车企停产，特朗普取消联邦购车退税补贴，美国电动车行业进入寒冬！中美电车行业为何冰火两重天？

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of federal electric vehicle tax credits by the Trump administration has plunged the U.S. electric vehicle industry into a downturn, leading to a significant drop in sales and a shift in focus among traditional automakers towards hybrid and gasoline vehicles [2][3][7]. Group 1: Impact of Policy Changes - The federal electric vehicle tax credit, which provided $7,500 for new electric vehicle purchases and $4,000 for used ones, was abruptly terminated, causing a dramatic decline in electric vehicle sales [3][10]. - In September, prior to the policy change, electric vehicle sales surged by 40% year-on-year, but in October, sales plummeted by 30.3% year-on-year and 49% month-on-month, resulting in only 91,000 units sold [3][4]. - By November, sales further declined by 40% year-on-year to 76,000 units, with the market penetration rate dropping to 5.1%, a level not seen since early 2022 [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Brand Performance - Tesla's sales fell by 35% and 23% in October and November, respectively, yet its market share increased from 43% to 57% [6]. - Other automakers faced even steeper declines, with Kia's EV6/EV9 sales down 71% and 68%, Ford's Mach-E/F-150 Lightning down 61%, and Honda's Prologue down 80% and 87% [6]. - Rivian was one of the few brands to show growth, with a 7.6% increase in November despite a 15% drop in October [6]. Group 3: Structural Issues in the U.S. Market - The U.S. electric vehicle market's reliance on government support has been highlighted, with analysts predicting a continued decline in demand due to the lack of incentives [7][9]. - The U.S. electric vehicle market is expected to see a slight decline in sales and penetration rate next year, with projections indicating a return to single-digit penetration rates by 2025 [9][10]. - The cancellation of subsidies and the lack of consistent policy have created an unpredictable environment for automakers, hindering long-term planning [9][10]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment and Market Conditions - The price gap between electric and gasoline vehicles remains significant, with electric vehicles averaging $59,200 compared to $47,500 for gasoline vehicles, a 25% difference [10][11]. - The cancellation of subsidies exacerbates this price disadvantage, making electric vehicles less appealing to consumers, especially as gasoline prices decline [10][11]. - Concerns about charging infrastructure and the overall cost of ownership further deter potential buyers, with a significant shortage of charging stations relative to the number of electric vehicles [13][14]. Group 5: Traditional Automakers' Strategic Shifts - Traditional automakers are scaling back their electric vehicle ambitions, shifting focus to hybrid and gasoline models in response to market realities [14][15]. - General Motors announced a $1.6 billion impairment loss related to its electric vehicle business and adjusted its production targets downward [15][18]. - Ford reported a $19.5 billion asset impairment, with significant losses in its electric vehicle division, leading to a strategic pivot towards hybrid models [19][21]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape and Global Context - The U.S. electric vehicle market is lagging behind China, which accounted for 1.1 million electric vehicle sales last year, representing a 40% year-on-year growth [9][24]. - Ford's CEO acknowledged the technological gap between U.S. and Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, emphasizing the need for U.S. companies to adapt and innovate [24][26].