邓正红能源软实力：地缘性扰动浮现溢价 国际油价是全球能源权力博弈的晴雨表

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical disturbances involving Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are highlighting the premium value of oil's soft power, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices due to supply concerns and sanctions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 18, international oil prices saw a slight increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil rising to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase, and Brent crude oil reaching $59.82 per barrel, up 0.23% [1]. - The potential for U.S. military action against Venezuela has raised market concerns regarding oil supply disruptions [1][4]. Group 2: Sanctions and Their Impact - The U.S. imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management companies involved in transporting oil from Iran, which has significantly impacted Iran's oil export capabilities [2][3]. - The U.K. has also added 24 new sanctions against Russian oil companies, including Russneft and Tatneft, indicating a broader strategy to tighten energy supply chains [2][4]. Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The soft power theory posits that the current fluctuations in oil prices are a result of multiple factors, including the restructuring of global energy trade rules due to sanctions, supply chain risks, and market expectations [5][6]. - The theory emphasizes that the dynamics between soft power (rules) and hard power (material resources) are crucial in understanding the oil market's behavior [3][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on geopolitical developments, particularly regarding peace negotiations in Ukraine, the effectiveness of sanctions, and the global economic recovery's impact on demand [5][6]. - The market may not yet fully reflect the influence of soft power factors, suggesting that current oil prices could be undervalued [5].