A股特别提示(12-19):摩根大通展望2026年中国股市或迎两位数涨幅,聚焦四大投资主题

Group 1 - China's Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start full island closure operations on December 18, expanding the range of "zero tariff" goods to over 6,600 tax items, enhancing consumer experience in tourism and shopping [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has reintroduced export license management for steel products after 16 years to strengthen monitoring and quality tracking of exports, while also approving some rare earth export general license applications [1] - The State Council's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has issued guidelines for accountability in investment violations by central enterprises, detailing 98 scenarios for accountability [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated increased investment pressure since 2025 and plans to implement targeted measures to expand effective investment, particularly in emerging industries [2] - The market regulatory authority emphasizes the need to promote a unified national market and improve fair competition governance to eliminate "involution" competition [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is advancing the "14th Five-Year" plan for the capital market, focusing on comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.16% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively, with a total market turnover of 1.68 trillion yuan [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.73%, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 1.257 billion HKD [4] - The insurance asset management sector has registered 83 asset-backed plans this year, totaling approximately 344.56 billion yuan, indicating ongoing innovation in asset securitization [4] Group 4 - The domestic gold resource reserves in Laizhou, Shandong, have been confirmed to exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the national total, making it the largest underwater gold mine in Asia [2] - The upcoming New Year's holiday is expected to significantly boost the domestic tourism market, with flight bookings already showing a 46% year-on-year increase [6] - The insurance asset management market has reached a record high of approximately 34 trillion yuan in total scale by the end of November, continuing a trend of positive growth [6]