半导体设备ETF（561980）单日“吸金”超2700万元，大摩：芯片股“长期牛市逻辑”仍完好无损

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance on December 18, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and commercial aerospace performing well, while the battery and semiconductor supply chains experienced a pullback [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a daily decline of 1.97%, but recorded a net inflow of over 27 million yuan, achieving a total of over 33 million yuan in net inflows over two consecutive days [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the long-term bullish logic for semiconductor stocks remains intact, driven by an unprecedented AI infrastructure boom and strong inventory destocking in traditional analog chips/MCUs, suggesting semiconductor stocks could be one of the best-performing sectors in the U.S. stock market next year [3] - Omdia's research predicts that the semiconductor industry will reach revenues of $216.3 billion in Q3 2025, marking the first time quarterly revenues exceed $200 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.5%. The total annual revenue for 2025 is expected to surpass $800 billion [3] - The top four companies in the semiconductor industry by revenue in Q3 2025 are expected to be Nvidia and three major memory chip manufacturers, collectively contributing over 40% of global semiconductor revenues [3] Group 3 - According to SEMI, the total sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) is expected to reach $133 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, setting a historical high. Sales are projected to continue rising to $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027, primarily driven by AI-related investments [4] - The semiconductor industry is transitioning from cyclical growth to structural growth driven by AI, with the professional foundry market expected to reach $171 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% [6] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 77% and 68% year-on-year increase in demand for 2026 and 2027, respectively, as the market faces a notable supply gap [4][6] Group 4 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, which has over 50% exposure to semiconductor equipment, covering major players like Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and SMIC, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% concentration [8] - As of December 18, the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a year-to-date increase of over 55%, with a maximum increase of over 80% during the period, leading among similar semiconductor indices [9]