美国CPI不及预期叠加失业率攀升 纽约金创历史新高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant fluctuations in global financial markets, driven by unexpected economic data from the U.S., including a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a rise in unemployment rate, which has led to a surge in gold prices and heightened expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][3][4]. Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the November CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below the economists' expectation of 3.1%, marking the lowest growth rate since early 2021; the core CPI increased by 2.6%, down from 3.0% in September, indicating a continued easing of inflationary pressures [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, reaching its highest level since September 2021, suggesting a marginal weakening in the labor market [3]. - Following the release of this data, the financial markets reacted swiftly, with the dollar index dropping to 98.167 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by 2.2 basis points to 4.13%, while New York gold futures prices surged to a historical high of $4,343 per ounce [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have adjusted, with the probability of a cut in March 2024 rising to 46.8%, and expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 becoming more established [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in gold prices reflects increased global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the dollar, coupled with expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which has led to lower real interest rates [4]. - Looking ahead, analysts believe that the divergence in U.S. economic data will continue to influence market sentiment, with the Federal Reserve's policy direction remaining a key focus [5].