TMGM官网：美元/加元位于1.38下方，美国CPI降温或开启降息周期？

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has entered a downward trend for the second consecutive trading day, hovering around 1.3780 during the Asian trading session [2] - The unexpected decline in the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) to a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, has raised market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose only 2.6%, also failing to meet the 3.0% expectation, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 and increasing uncertainty regarding the Fed's monetary policy path [2] Group 2 - President Trump's comments have intensified market expectations for interest rate cuts, suggesting that the next Federal Reserve chair will be someone who "clearly supports rate cuts," further pressuring the dollar [3] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its interest rate at 2.25%, indicating that the current policy setting is "generally appropriate," which supports the Canadian dollar amid resilient economic activity [3] - The ongoing weakness of the USD/CAD reflects the widening policy divergence between the two central banks [3] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data, particularly the US December Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Canadian retail sales figures, will be closely monitored as they may significantly impact the USD's trajectory [4] - A decline in the consumer sentiment index could exacerbate expectations for Fed rate cuts, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Strong Canadian retail sales data could provide support for the Canadian dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate [4]