铂期货创上市以来新高，摩根大通发声引关注，是估值修复还是趋势反转？｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum futures prices is attributed to an expanding supply-demand gap and strong support from multiple factors, with the hydrogen energy industry emerging as a new growth point, alongside a significant increase in domestic investment demand [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Platinum futures have seen a rapid increase, with the main contract (PT2606) hitting a record high of 549.90 CNY per gram on December 18, marking a 5.32% increase for the day and a cumulative rise of 16.7% over three trading days [2]. - The price surge is linked to the recovery of platinum's undervalued financial attributes, as the gold-platinum ratio has decreased from around 3.5 to approximately 2.5, indicating a correction in valuation [3]. - The market's trading activity has increased significantly, with a weighted open interest of about 36,500 contracts and a daily increase of nearly 5,900 contracts, reflecting heightened investor interest [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global platinum market is expected to face a third consecutive year of shortages by 2025, driven by strong demand from the hydrogen energy sector and other industrial applications [2][4]. - Major platinum-producing countries, including South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe, are projected to account for 92.7% of global refined output, highlighting the concentrated nature of supply [6]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) anticipates an average structural shortage of 19.3 tons per year from 2025 to 2029, equivalent to 8% of the average annual demand during that period [7]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a relatively loose monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve expected to implement further rate cuts, which could enhance the attractiveness of precious metals like platinum [5][8]. - Recent employment data indicates a cooling job market, which is not expected to trigger inflation, further supporting a favorable environment for precious metals [5]. - The correlation between platinum and gold prices is high, with a statistical correlation of 0.59 from 2023 to 2025, suggesting that macroeconomic factors will significantly influence platinum prices [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict a bullish market for platinum futures in 2026, with expectations of continued price recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [9]. - The potential for increased demand from hydrogen energy applications and automotive catalysts could further support price increases [8][9]. - Despite a projected slight surplus in 2026 due to increased recycling from scrapped vehicles, supply risks from high production costs and regional conflicts in major producing areas remain a concern [8].