朱云来：经济高质量增长需要考虑效率问题，提升投资产出率与劳动生产率

Core Insights - The forum "2026 Annual Dialogue and Global Wealth Management Forum" emphasizes the theme "China's Resilience in Changing Circumstances" and discusses the historical context of China's economic growth through its five-year plans [1] - The former CEO of China International Capital Corporation, Zhu Yunlai, highlights the need for China to achieve an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.2% over the next decade to reach a per capita GDP of around $20,000 by 2035 [4][11] - The focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the efficiency of economic growth and the quality of investments [5][15] Economic Growth and Investment - Historical data shows that China's per capita GDP surpassed low-income countries in 1988, middle-income countries in 2007, and the world average in 2021, nearing high-income status by 2023 [11] - A study of 210 global economies indicates that for every 1% increase in economic growth, the net investment rate must increase by 3% [13] - To achieve the targeted growth, China's net investment rate may need to reach 13% [13] Quality of Growth - High-quality growth is defined by higher returns and better quality of investments, necessitating a focus on efficiency in growth [16][22] - Investment output rates have shown fluctuations, with a current rate of approximately 34%, indicating the need for improved asset return efficiency [16][18] Green Transition Opportunities - The green transition presents significant opportunities, with costs in solar and battery storage technologies decreasing rapidly, enhancing their economic viability [25][43] - The solar industry has seen an average cost reduction of 15% annually from 2010 to 2024, with cumulative reductions of about 70% [25] - Battery storage costs have also decreased by nearly 50% over five years, supporting the integration of renewable energy sources [25][43] Consumption and Economic Structure - The relationship between consumer spending and total factor productivity is highlighted, suggesting that improving healthcare and pension systems can boost consumption [30][32] - Urbanization is linked to increases in both income and consumption, indicating a need for policies that address urban-rural disparities [34] External Trade and Investment - Post-pandemic, China's exports have maintained rapid growth, but the correlation with imports has decreased, suggesting a need for flexible trade strategies [41] - The emphasis on "going out" and "bringing in" strategies for international competition and resource acquisition is crucial for sustaining economic vitality [41] Conclusion - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and economic development are complex systemic issues that require a comprehensive analytical framework for future research and planning [44]