有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.1%，工业金属价格支撑逻辑受关注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" interest rate cut, aluminum prices briefly weakened, but global aluminum inventory has slightly decreased, maintaining a total of 1.2-1.25 million tons in LME and domestic aluminum stocks, indicating low safety stock levels [1] - Due to power issues causing production cuts in overseas projects and slow incremental releases from Indonesia, global aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance for the next 2-3 years, with low inventory levels supporting aluminum prices [1] - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high for the year, suggesting that aluminum still has room for price increases, especially if production cuts due to electricity shortages in the U.S. occur, which could lead to stronger price elasticity for aluminum [1] Group 2 - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum industry is approximately 5,500 yuan per ton, and with the decline in alumina prices, the cost per ton of aluminum still has room for reduction, indicating that profits are likely to remain high [1] - Cash flow for electrolytic aluminum companies continues to recover, with low capital expenditure intensity and an increased ability and willingness to distribute dividends, highlighting the emerging dividend asset characteristics [1] - Short-term metal prices may experience fluctuations, and attention should be paid to non-farm employment and inflation data's impact on Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in nonferrous metal mining, smelting, and processing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering various sectors including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - The average market capitalization of constituent stocks in the index is approximately 40.2 billion yuan, with a relatively balanced industry distribution, aiming to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in China's nonferrous metal industry [1]