Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that if investors continue to trade based on easing expectations, interest rates may continue to decline, but any rate cuts are likely to occur only in the latter part of the first quarter of next year, indicating a weak rebound should be anticipated [1] - Recommendations include focusing on 2-3 year credit bonds, 5-year national development bonds, and 6-7 year national development bonds, with specific attention to active bonds such as 250208 and 250203, as well as hedging strategies involving 5-year national development bonds [1] - For 30-year bonds, the current spread between new and old bonds remains high, and non-active bonds with higher yields are considered to have good holding value, particularly bonds 250002 and 25T2, with a preference for 250002 based on liquidity expectations and speculative opportunities [1] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.02%, marking a third consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.8 yuan [2] - In terms of liquidity, the National Development Bond ETF had a turnover of 1.85% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 8.9177 million yuan, and the average daily transaction value over the past year was 319 million yuan [2] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bond ETF over the past six months was 0.12%, which is the smallest drawdown compared to benchmark and comparable funds, with a recovery time of 8 days [2] Group 3 - The management fee for the National Development Bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the National Development Bond ETF over the past month is 0.006%, indicating the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [3] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to 3 years, serving as a benchmark for investments in this category [3]
静待春暖花开，国开债券ETF(159651)冲击3连涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-19 05:41