12月山东汽柴油市场震荡下跌 套利空间“汽弱柴强”

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong gasoline and diesel market experienced a downward trend in December due to increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [1][2][3]. Supply Analysis - In December, there were no new refinery maintenance activities in Shandong, but the supply of crude oil was ample due to the early allocation of 2026 crude oil quotas, resulting in increased operational loads at independent refineries [2]. - As of December 17, the operational load of Shandong independent refineries was 65.29%, up by 2.48 percentage points from late November, with gasoline daily production at 75,300 tons (up 5.31%) and diesel at 145,800 tons (up 4.97%) [2]. Demand Analysis - Gasoline demand was weak due to a lack of holiday support and adverse weather conditions, with a sales-to-production ratio of 86% (down 2 percentage points from November) [3]. - Diesel demand also weakened, particularly due to cold weather affecting outdoor construction and logistics, with a sales-to-production ratio of 85% (down 5 percentage points from November) [3]. Arbitrage Opportunities - Gasoline arbitrage opportunities were limited, with potential profits of 200-270 yuan/ton for shipments to regions like Guangxi and Guangdong, while Beijing offered around 140 yuan/ton [5]. - Diesel arbitrage opportunities were more favorable, ranging from 150-400 yuan/ton for shipments to various regions, including Guangxi and Beijing [6]. Market Outlook - The international crude oil market is expected to remain weak due to increased supply and reduced demand, with geopolitical factors contributing to a bearish sentiment [8]. - In January, gasoline supply-demand dynamics may show strength due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, while diesel demand is expected to remain weak, leading to a potential price increase for gasoline and a continued decline for diesel [9]. - The arbitrage space for both gasoline and diesel is anticipated to narrow, with primary trading regions remaining concentrated in Shandong and nearby provinces [10].