聚酯瓶片：成本支撑与供需宽松博弈，预计下周价格震荡中微幅上探

Core Viewpoint - The polyester bottle chip market is experiencing a "N" shaped trend with prices initially declining and then rising, with an average price in East China at 5719 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.21% week-on-week [1] Cost Factors - The cost side is influenced by geopolitical situations, with oil prices showing a weak to strong trend, and PTA prices following a similar pattern, providing cost support for bottle chips [1] - The geopolitical tensions in Russia-Ukraine and South America may lead to increased volatility in oil prices, which could impact costs further [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply remains ample, with major production facilities operating smoothly and new facilities in Shandong undergoing trial runs, contributing to sufficient market liquidity and ongoing inventory pressure [1] - The expectation is that supply will continue to be relaxed, with potential increases in future supply due to new facilities coming online [1] Demand Trends - Demand is primarily driven by basic needs, with a temporary increase in trading activity due to price corrections stimulating some downstream restocking [1] - However, demand may face weakening pressure as previous restocking efforts conclude, leading to gradually saturated downstream inventories and a slowdown in purchasing pace due to the ongoing seasonal off-peak period [1] Price Outlook - The forecast for next week indicates that bottle chip prices will fluctuate within the range of 5650-5850 yuan/ton, with an average price expected to rise slightly week-on-week [1]