美委地缘变动频繁 燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2380.00 yuan, closing at 2383.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.22% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the absolute prices of high and low sulfur fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to fluctuate in line with oil prices due to ample supply in the market [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, have impacted the supply of high sulfur heavy raw materials, potentially providing temporary support to the market, although the sustainability of this support remains uncertain [3] - Ruida Futures indicated that the overall trend of fuel oil is likely to follow adjustments in crude oil prices, with short-term fundamentals appearing weak due to decreased refinery utilization rates and lower demand for ship fuel [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Everbright Futures highlighted that the high and low sulfur fuel oil market remains under pressure due to sufficient supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore in December [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures pointed out that while low sulfur quotas in China are limited, leading to a potential increase in import demand, the overall supply remains abundant, suggesting a weak medium-term outlook [3] - Ruida Futures reported that the overall supply pressure persists, with stable refinery capacity utilization but decreased output from independent refineries, leading to a decline in demand for ship fuel [3]