知本洞察视角：投资的第一问，永远应该是“我能承受多少亏损”

Core Viewpoint - The primary question for investors should not be "How much can I earn?" but rather "How much loss can I endure?" as the depth and speed of losses are the greatest uncertainties in the market [1][24]. Group 1: Importance of Loss Tolerance - The ability to endure losses is fundamental to investment strategies, as it determines the sustainability of those strategies [7][24]. - Losses often stem from emotional responses rather than market conditions, highlighting the psychological aspect of investment failures [5][8]. - A significant loss can cause permanent damage to future returns, as recovering from deep losses requires substantial gains [6][24]. Group 2: Psychological Impact of Losses - The real danger lies in the uncertainty of how far losses can go, leading to destructive psychological states such as panic selling and denial [13][15]. - Investors often experience a "psychological bankruptcy" before facing actual financial bankruptcy, indicating a critical failure in managing emotional responses to losses [9][10]. Group 3: Professional Investor Mindset - Professional investors prioritize assessing potential worst-case scenarios over potential gains, which is a key difference from ordinary investors [18][24]. - Common practices among professional investors include determining risk exposure before position sizing, evaluating maximum potential losses before gains, and establishing stop-loss frameworks [18][24]. Group 4: Evaluating Loss Tolerance - A three-tier model for assessing loss tolerance includes financial capacity, psychological resilience, and strategic allowance for losses [19][24]. - Financial capacity involves evaluating whether one can maintain living standards during losses, while psychological resilience assesses emotional reactions to various levels of loss [20][21]. - Strategic allowance focuses on whether investment strategies incorporate risk boundaries and mechanisms for loss recovery [22][24]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Understanding loss tolerance is essential for long-term investment success, as it enables investors to navigate market fluctuations effectively [24][25]. - The ability to endure losses is viewed as a prerequisite for engaging in long-term investment, emphasizing that risk tolerance is the entry ticket to sustained market participation [24][25].