Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-19 06:04Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs projects a positive outlook for the global transportation industry by 2026, particularly in the aviation and oil tanker sectors, while expressing caution in the container shipping segment [1] Group 2 - In the aviation sector, Goldman Sachs expects international demand to rise and supply constraints to persist, leading to an estimated return on equity of 22% for airlines by 2027, which exceeds the industry cycle average [1] - The report highlights a preference for specific airline stocks, namely Air China H-shares and China Eastern Airlines A-shares, due to anticipated upward pressure on ticket prices [1] Group 3 - In the container shipping sector, Goldman Sachs has adopted a cautious stance due to a recovery in supply, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - The report notes that new ship orders have exceeded expectations, with orders representing 33% of existing capacity, and potential reopening of the Red Sea could pose downward risks by releasing about 10% of effective capacity [1] Group 4 - In the oil tanker segment, Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook, forecasting a continued upward cycle in spot freight rates through 2026 [1] - The report indicates that China's oil reserve process may take up to a year, exceeding market expectations, while effective capacity is projected to grow by only 1%, benefiting companies like China Merchants Energy due to their exposure to the oil tanker and Chinese import markets [1]