中国亮出了最终的王牌，没有中国的同意，美国别妄想卷土重来！

Core Insights - China's strict export controls on rare earth elements significantly impact the U.S. economy and its core industries, with policies evolving since April 2025 to include licensing management for seven categories of rare earth elements [1] - The introduction of long-arm jurisdiction in China's regulations requires compliance for products containing over 0.1% of Chinese-origin rare earth elements, affecting global supply chains [1] - The U.S. remains heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths, with over 80% of its military's rare earth needs met through imports, 85% of which come from China [3][5] Group 1: Policy Developments - In December, China began issuing simplified export licenses to ease compliance for civilian exports, highlighting the U.S.'s short-sightedness in addressing its dependence on Chinese rare earths [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense reports that its military sector's reliance on imported rare earths poses significant risks, especially as domestic processing capabilities are insufficient [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core components of military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet and Tomahawk missiles rely on rare earth elements, making supply disruptions a critical concern [5] - The U.S. Geological Survey predicts that by 2024, 80% of U.S. rare earth imports will come from China, exacerbating trade tensions [5] Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - U.S. companies have attempted to source rare earths from Canada, Australia, and Mongolia, but face limitations in production and processing capabilities [7] - The global demand for rare earths is expected to increase sevenfold by 2030, while U.S. domestic development timelines are projected to take 10 to 15 years, creating a significant supply bottleneck [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - China's dominant position in the rare earth market is reshaping global economic dynamics, with its contributions to global growth exceeding 30% [9] - The U.S. plans to form a critical minerals alliance with several countries to counter China's influence, but this initiative is seen as a response rather than a strategy to lead the global rare earth supply [9]