Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 06:43Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that the upcoming creative wave poses risks to Prada (01913) as renowned creative directors join competitive brands, making it difficult to see how Prada and Miu Miu can maintain growth momentum [1] - Despite believing in the group's good management and cheap stock price, Morgan Stanley does not foresee reasons for the group to outperform competitors in the coming months, thus lowering the target price from HKD 53 to HKD 51 and maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] - The firm anticipates that Prada will be one of the few personal luxury goods groups to report a continued slowdown in total sales and retail sales in Q4, with Miu Miu's growth rate expected to slow significantly, projecting a Q4 year-on-year growth of only 17%, down from 29% in Q3 and 49% in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - For the Prada brand, Morgan Stanley slightly raised its Q4 organic sales growth (OSG) forecast to flat year-on-year, indicating that the brand's momentum remains robust [2] - For the Miu Miu brand, Morgan Stanley lowered its Q4 year-on-year growth forecast to 17%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to the 28.6% growth in Q3, although Miu Miu is still expected to maintain strong momentum and performance [2] - At the group level, Morgan Stanley has reduced its growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 4.4% and for the entire year to 7.6%, leading to a downward revision of the group's earnings per share forecasts by 0.6% and 2.7% for the next two years, respectively [2]