综述｜欧洲央行“按兵不动” 美欧货币政策愈显分化

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations, amidst geopolitical tensions, energy price fluctuations, and changes in the global trade environment [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the uncertain international environment could disrupt supply chains and suppress exports, leading to potential impacts on consumption and investment [1][2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe is widening, which may weaken the competitiveness of Eurozone exports and create ripple effects on the global economy [1][3] Group 2 - Lagarde noted the significant potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in enhancing productivity and driving economic transformation, although it is premature to assess its impact on inflation and economic growth [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that the Eurozone's overall inflation rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, slightly below the 2% medium-term target, with a rebound to 2.0% anticipated in 2028 [2] - Economic growth in the Eurozone is projected to be 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in both 2027 and 2028, with domestic demand expected to be the main growth driver [2] Group 3 - The true risk for the European economy lies in controlling inflation, with structural constraints on the supply side being a significant concern [3] - The ECB's neutral policy stance contrasts with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, which may lead to changes in exchange rates, capital flows, and trade channels affecting the global economy [3] - The potential strengthening of the Euro due to interest rate differentials poses a risk to Eurozone export competitiveness, thereby impacting economic growth [3]