社科院张斌：提振消费最有效的办法是短期内快速扩大投资

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasizes the theme "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances," focusing on the complex causes of insufficient demand and the need for targeted policy measures to address it [1]. Group 1: Causes of Insufficient Demand - Insufficient demand arises from a complex interplay of factors, and the solution is not to address every structural issue but to prioritize breaking the self-reinforcing cycle of demand contraction [3][7]. - Demand insufficiency is often linked to specific triggers such as asset bubbles, external demand drops, or financial crises, typically accompanied by rapid contractions in cyclical industries [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Policies should focus on breaking the self-amplifying transmission chain of demand contraction rather than attempting to solve all structural problems simultaneously [7]. - The government should take on a proactive role by increasing spending to stimulate other sectors' income and alter market expectations, moving beyond traditional market logic and commercial return rates [3][8]. - Investment should be prioritized over consumption in the short term, as it is a "fast variable" that can quickly boost nominal GDP and subsequently support consumer income and corporate profits [3][8]. Group 3: Characteristics of Insufficient Demand - Insufficient demand is characterized by multiple complex causes, market failures, and a self-reinforcing nature that leads to significant economic harm [6][9]. - The phenomenon exhibits a pattern where fast variables like investment and credit decline first, dragging down slower variables such as consumer spending and income [6][8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical examples, such as the Great Depression and Japan's "lost two decades," illustrate the severe consequences of demand insufficiency on economic vitality [9].