探寻提振消费路径

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges of insufficient domestic consumption in China and suggests various strategies to stimulate consumer demand, including increasing investment, improving income distribution, and enhancing residents' income levels [3][4][6]. Group 1: Consumption Demand - Domestic consumption demand is currently a key constraint on economic growth, with the National Development and Reform Commission highlighting low consumer rates as a major challenge [3]. - In 2024, China's resident consumption rate is projected to be 39.9%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries by approximately 10-30 percentage points, particularly in terms of service consumption [3][4]. - The decline in consumption is attributed to a smaller scale of "old-for-new" policies in the second half of 2025, leading to lower retail sales data compared to the first half [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to combine investments in physical goods and human capital to stimulate consumption [5]. - Future subsidies should be optimized to include service-oriented goods and infrastructure investments, such as sports facilities and theaters, which ultimately benefit human capital [5][6]. - Investment in human capital has been gradually increasing in fiscal spending, focusing on areas like health, employment, and education, which is expected to further support consumption growth [6]. Group 3: Income Distribution - The potential for consumption remains largely untapped due to various factors, including the low share of residents in national income distribution compared to government and corporate shares [7]. - Improving income levels and distribution is crucial for overcoming constraints on economic growth, with a significant increase in consumption rates needed as China transitions from middle to high-income status [7][8]. - The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, should be targeted to be reduced to 0.4 or lower by 2035, aligning with international standards [8]. Group 4: Enhancing Property Income - Resident wage income constitutes the primary source of disposable income, with wages accounting for 56.5% of disposable income in 2024 [10]. - Real estate and stock investments are key components of residents' property income, with current real estate inventory at a historical high since 2015 [10]. - Stabilizing the real estate market and stock market is essential for enhancing residents' property income and overall economic stability [11][12].