交易所出手！“黄金平替”年内狂飙117%跑赢黄金，机构：明年或回调

Core Insights - The platinum group metals (PGMs), including platinum and palladium, have experienced a significant price surge, with both futures and spot prices reaching historical highs, prompting the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to implement trading limits to cool market enthusiasm [1][3][7] Price Surge in Futures Market - On December 18, the domestic PGM market saw a comprehensive explosion, with platinum futures (PT2606) peaking at 549.9 yuan/gram and closing at 542.6 yuan/gram, marking a daily increase of 5.32%. Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 476.6 yuan/gram, up 6.99%, with multiple contracts showing strong closing performance [3] - Internationally, platinum prices reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114%, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, reflecting an approximate 85% rise, both achieving significant new highs [3] - The jewelry market followed suit, with prices for platinum jewelry surpassing 800 yuan/gram, reaching 815 yuan/gram, and the Shenzhen market seeing platinum jewelry prices rise to around 470 yuan/gram, a 56% increase from approximately 300 yuan/gram earlier in the year [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in PGM prices is attributed to a combination of fundamental, policy, and financial factors, with a tight supply being the core driver. South Africa, the largest platinum supplier, is facing production challenges due to extreme weather, power shortages, and aging mines, leading to a projected 13% year-on-year decline in PGM output by Q1 2025 [5] - The current one-month leasing rate for platinum remains above 10%, indicating strong holder reluctance to sell and a scarcity of deliverable spot metal, which has created a liquidity crisis that has transmitted to the futures market, resulting in strong buying pressure [5] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the automotive catalyst sector, with the hydrogen energy industry further enhancing platinum's catalytic value. Additionally, the listing of platinum and palladium futures options has stimulated investment and hedging demand [5] Market Regulation and Diverging Opinions - As the market experiences significant price increases, opinions on the future performance of PGMs have diverged. Some analysts believe the current price surge may be excessive and could face correction pressure next year, while others argue that structural supply shortages will support higher price levels in the long term [7] - To mitigate excessive market volatility, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading limits on platinum and palladium futures contracts, effective December 23, 2025, restricting daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 lots [7]