沪铜高位调整 社会库存累积有限【12月18日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.46% at closing, supported by a tight copper supply despite subdued downstream demand and limited accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is operating at a low level, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] - Recent US inflation data for November came in below expectations, indicating signs of cooling inflation [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly lower than expected, which, along with dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials, has bolstered expectations for a rate cut in January [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper exports have increased, while social inventory accumulation has been limited, particularly due to reduced inflows in Jiangsu and Guangdong [1] - The rise in domestic refined copper social inventory has slowed down as of Thursday, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that weaker US inflation data strengthens expectations for a rate cut next year, which may favor a dovish narrative [1] - The European Central Bank has paused rate cuts while raising economic growth forecasts, indicating a potential for stable rates over a longer period [1] - The global resumption of mining operations is slow, with low LME registered warehouse stocks, and domestic social inventory remains at a low level [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming long-term contract TC negotiations, with expectations that copper prices will maintain high volatility in the short term [1]