3 6 Ke·2025-12-19 07:43Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped significantly from its peak of 339.6 HKD per share to 190.7 HKD, a decline of 43.8% as of December 15, raising concerns about its market performance and future growth potential [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - After being included in the Hang Seng Index, Pop Mart's stock did not experience the expected surge, with only a slight increase of 1.9% on the second trading day post-announcement [4][5] - On the day of the index adjustment, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 7.11%, indicating a lack of investor confidence despite its inclusion in major indices [6] - Following a strong earnings report, the stock only saw a minor increase of about 2% the next day, but subsequently dropped by 9.36%, suggesting a fear-driven market response [8] Group 2: Sales and Growth Potential - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 15.216 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.69%, with third-quarter revenue growth projected at 245-250% [18] - Despite concerns over Black Friday sales performance, even a lower estimate of 500% growth in North America would still be impressive [19] - The company has shown significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in Thailand, transforming from a domestic competitor to a successful international case study [17][18] Group 3: Brand and Product Strategy - Pop Mart's brand identity is closely tied to the concept of "emotional value," which resonates with younger consumers, making it a phenomenon among Gen Z [23][24] - The company has successfully created a diverse range of IPs, with notable revenue contributions from characters like "THE MONSTERS" and "CRYBABY," showcasing its ability to adapt and innovate [25][26] - Pop Mart's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is comparable to luxury brands, indicating strong market expectations for its future growth [21] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Recent market behavior suggests that investors may be trapped in a "fear spiral," where positive fundamentals are overshadowed by negative sentiment, leading to significant sell-offs [8][9] - The stock's volatility has been exacerbated by external factors, such as employee dissatisfaction and market research reports indicating slowing demand [9][10] - Despite the current challenges, the underlying growth potential and brand strength suggest that Pop Mart may still have a promising future [11][21]