Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-19 08:09Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.10% to 2148.00 CNY/ton [1] Supply - The operating rate of production enterprises has increased to 90.52%, with production reaching 2.056 million tons, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic gas-based methanol production facilities are undergoing insufficient maintenance, leading to record production levels in December [1] Demand - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) industry is seeing a decrease in weekly average operating rates due to the continued shutdown of facilities at Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake [1] - The operational load of the Lianhong Gelun MTO facility is gradually increasing, which is expected to result in a slight increase in industry operating rates in the short term [1] Inventory - As of December 18, methanol inventory at East China ports was 610,600 tons, down from 632,900 tons on December 11, reflecting a decrease of 22,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of certain facilities will lead to a decline in imports from mid to late December into January, while MTO facility loads are also expected to decrease [1] - Due to slow unloading rates, there is a significant drop in inventory, which may lead to a rebound in prices; however, the potential for a substantial increase in downstream polyolefin prices is limited, suggesting a price ceiling for methanol [1] - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom oscillation trend [1]