美股叙事单一，人民币有望回归“6时代”，AI还能卷什么？2026财经“剧本”抢先看

Group 1 - In 2025, global investors experienced a significant market rally, with global stock markets rising approximately 30% and the US stock market rebounding over 50% since April [1] - Gold prices surged over 60% in 2025, marking the second-highest annual increase since 1979, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid high global debt and shifting monetary policies [1] - The strong performance of global assets in 2025 is attributed to the dual drivers of AI and renewable energy, which have become core growth engines in capital markets [1] Group 2 - A report from BCA Research indicates that the biggest threat to the US economy in 2026 may stem from the financial markets themselves, rather than an economic recession [5] - The report highlights that approximately two-thirds of global stock market capitalization is concentrated in US stocks, with 40% of that in just ten stocks, all heavily reliant on the success of the generative AI narrative [5][6] - Recent market trends show a divergence among leading tech stocks, suggesting that not all tech stocks are viewed as a single entity, allowing for value investors to validate certain companies [5][6] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's chief economist in China suggests a new asset allocation strategy of 60% stocks, 20% gold, and 20% bonds, reflecting a reassessment of strategic asset values amid declining fiat currency credibility [9] - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $4,500 by mid-2026, driven by structural demand from central banks, which currently account for 20% of the annual gold production of 5,000 tons [13] - The report emphasizes that the performance of gold is closely tied to the depreciation of the US dollar, with approximately 70% of gold's price increase attributed to changes in the dollar's value [10] Group 4 - The AI sector is identified as a key driver of the stock market's rise in 2025, with significant trends emerging in AI, electricity, and longevity economics [12] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the US dollar, with predictions of the dollar to RMB exchange rate reaching around 6.9 by mid-2026 [12] - The shift towards AI-driven productivity is expected to transform business operations, moving from traditional models to agile teams that leverage digital agents for task execution [16]