Group 1: Airline Industry - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international demand will rise while supply constraints persist, leading to an expected return on equity (ROE) of 22% for airlines by 2027, surpassing the industry cycle average [1] - Despite risks associated with Japan in the first half of the year, the outlook for airline stocks remains positive, with further upward potential for ticket prices [1] - Preferred stocks include China National Aviation Holding (601111) H-shares (00753) and China Eastern Airlines (600115) A-shares (600115.SH) [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - The firm adopts a more cautious stance on container shipping due to supply recovery, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - New ship orders this year have exceeded expectations, resulting in an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33% [1] - Potential reopening of the Red Sea may pose additional downside risks, potentially releasing about 10% of effective capacity, which could lead to China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) (01919, 601919.SH) entering a cash consumption state [1] Group 3: Oil Tankers - The outlook for oil tankers remains optimistic, with expectations of rising spot freight rates during the sustained upward cycle in 2026 [1] - The oil reserve process in China may take up to a year, longer than the market's three-month expectation, while effective capacity is predicted to grow by only 1% [1] - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) (01138, 600026.SH) is expected to benefit due to its significant exposure to oil tankers and the Chinese import market [1] Group 4: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - China National Aviation (00753): Buy, target price raised from 7.3 to 8.2 HKD [2] - China Eastern Airlines (00670): Buy, target price raised from 3.7 to 5.1 HKD [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055): Buy, target price raised from 4.6 to 5.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Energy (01138): Buy, target price raised from 8.8 to 10.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Ports (01199): Buy, target price raised from 6 to 6.8 HKD [2] - China Merchants Port (00144): Neutral, target price raised from 14.2 to 15.7 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Neutral to Sell, target price lowered from 12.5 to 10.4 HKD [2] - Meilan Airport (00357): Sell, target price raised from 7.6 to 8.4 HKD [2]
高盛：对明年航运及油轮业持乐观态度 对集装箱船运较谨慎