高盛：料明年全球经济增长2.8% 预期美联储减息50个基点

Economic Growth Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts global economic growth to be robust at 2.8% in 2026, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.6%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1] - China's economy is projected to maintain resilience with a growth rate of 4.8%, as strong export performance offsets weak domestic demand [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is predicted to be 1.3% next year, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain [1] Labor Market and Inflation - The labor market outlook is less optimistic, as accelerated productivity increases the GDP growth threshold needed to create jobs, particularly evident in the U.S. where unemployment is rising despite steady GDP growth [1] - Inflation is expected to decline to near target levels by the end of 2026 across most economies, with core inflation in the U.S. and the UK projected to slow from around 3% to near 2% [1] - Factors contributing to lower inflation include reduced tariff pass-through, easing administrative prices, and slowing wage and housing inflation, alongside falling oil prices and increased Chinese commodity supply [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 3% to 3.25%, with dovish risks present [2] - The UK and many emerging markets are also expected to reduce interest rates, with the UK potentially cutting by 75 basis points [2] - The Eurozone is expected to maintain current interest rates, and the market's expectations for rate hikes in Canada and Australia are disagreed upon by Goldman Sachs [2] Asset Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs holds a positive view on equities and many emerging market assets, believing that cyclical factors will dominate the market, outweighing valuation concerns [2] - However, there may be increased volatility due to tensions between these two factors, with market focus shifting to the trend of re-leveraging potentially leading to underperformance in credit [2] - Key risks include a fragile labor market potentially triggering recession fears and stock markets questioning the value of AI-related revenues [2] - The dollar is expected to gradually weaken unless stronger U.S. growth leads to a reassessment of rate cut expectations, with declines likely concentrated in currencies sensitive to the economic cycle [2]