Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 09:04Core Viewpoint - The sugar-free ready-to-drink tea market is steadily increasing its market share, driven by rising consumer health awareness and long-term brand cultivation, with the sugar-free segment expected to reach 35.12% by September 2025, up from 31.66% in January 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The sales growth rate of sugar-free tea during the peak beverage season (April to September) in 2025 has significantly slowed compared to 2024, indicating a shift from an explosive growth phase to a competitive market phase [2] - The average price of sugar-free tea is expected to rise from 5.1 yuan/pcs in 2023 to 5.6 yuan/pcs in 2025, driven by increased penetration of large-pack products [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the sugar-free tea industry is returning to a rational order, with market share increasingly concentrated among leading brands; as of June 2025, Nongfu Spring's market share increased by 10.94 percentage points to 79.36% [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Product Development - Consumer demand for sugar-free tea has evolved from mere thirst quenching to emotional value satisfaction, with a shift towards larger packaging to cater to various consumption scenarios [4] - The demographic of sugar-free tea consumers is predominantly under 30 years old, with brands optimizing taste and cultural connections to expand their consumer base [4] Group 4: Channel Strategy - The beverage industry is transitioning from a broad distribution model to a more refined, data-driven approach, with over 80% of sales occurring through offline channels, particularly grocery stores [5] - Brands are adopting digital strategies to enhance channel efficiency, such as profit-sharing models that incentivize retail partners [5] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The market concentration is expected to continue favoring leading brands, which are well-positioned to capture market share through strategic brand and product development [6][7]