高质量对话 | 中银基金郭昀松：聚焦时代的周期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of gold in 2025, with a price increase exceeding 60%, marking the highest rise since 1979, while also discussing the cyclical nature of various industries and the investment strategies employed by fund manager Guo Yunsong [1][23]. Group 1: Gold Investment - Gold has seen a price increase of over 60% in 2025, making it the best-performing asset class this year [1]. - Guo Yunsong's investment strategy emphasizes gold as a hedge against inflation and a replacement for U.S. Treasury bonds, especially as the U.S. government debt reaches its highest level since World War II [3][17]. - The past 40 years have shown that gold's price increase has lagged behind the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, indicating a potential for further growth in gold investments [3][24]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Guo Yunsong's funds, including the Zhongyin Stable Strategy Mixed A and Zhongyin Cycle Preferred Mixed A, have achieved excess returns, with net value growth rates of 28.39% and 41.38% respectively over the past year [2]. - The performance of these funds significantly outperformed their respective benchmarks, indicating effective management and investment strategies [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Guo Yunsong focuses on macroeconomic cycles rather than micro-level stock selection, believing that understanding the broader economic environment is crucial for investment success [2][7]. - His investment framework is based on historical research and the cyclical nature of industries, allowing for better predictions of market movements [9][10]. - The concept of "area" (time multiplied by price) is introduced to assess the significance of price stability in commodities, suggesting that longer periods of high prices are more beneficial for companies [3][26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - The article discusses the structural changes in the commodity market, where supply-side constraints are becoming more influential on pricing, despite low demand [18][19]. - There is a noted divergence within the commodity sector, with certain commodities like electricity-related investments showing resilience despite overall demand weakness [19][21]. - Guo Yunsong anticipates that the macroeconomic environment will favor certain commodities, particularly those linked to high-end manufacturing and energy storage [21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The focus for 2026 will be on the Federal Reserve's continued easing policies, which are expected to impact asset prices significantly [22]. - Historical patterns suggest that the initial effects of monetary easing on the real economy are limited, with more substantial impacts occurring in the mid-term as liquidity flows into productive investments [22]. - The article concludes with a positive outlook on gold and other commodities, suggesting that structural demand changes will continue to shape market dynamics [23][24].