Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.(US:DJT) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-19 09:12Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The Bank of Japan's stance is neutral to hawkish, indicating that despite the rate hike, the actual interest rate remains very low, and the monetary environment is still accommodative, suggesting further rate increases in the future as prices improve [1][6] - Japan has entered a long-term gradual tightening process, but paradoxically, the yen depreciated against the dollar after the rate decision, falling below 156 [3][5] Group 2 - The market had anticipated the rate hike, with a 94% probability noted days prior, leading to the conclusion that the yen's current price is not low, and the market continues to be bearish on the yen [5] - Japan's November CPI was reported at 2.9%, while the nominal interest rate is only 0.75%, resulting in a real interest rate of -2.15%, indicating a deep negative zone [5][6] - The Bank of Japan's statement about maintaining low real interest rates suggests that liquidity will not tighten significantly due to a single rate hike, keeping the monetary environment loose [6] Group 3 - The Japanese government's stimulus plan of 21 trillion yen, with 18.3 trillion yen already approved, is primarily funded through new debt issuance, which increases the interest cost and could harm the credit of Japanese bonds and the yen [6] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has surpassed 2%, reaching the highest level since 2006, indicating a potential rise in bond yields as the tightening process continues [6][8] - To achieve a neutral interest rate of at least 2.5%, Japan may need to raise rates seven more times, which could take over three and a half years if done biannually, potentially leading to further increases in bond yields [8]