“铁锈”重燃，窗口关闭：一场长达十年的全球财富大迁徙

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The recent rebound in US stocks masks deeper defensive signals, with smart money reallocating towards high-certainty assets like short-term Treasury ETFs (BIL), which have a stable yield above 5% and high liquidity [1] - Professional investors are prioritizing certainty over high returns, indicating a strategic shift in response to the anticipated restructuring of the global economy over the next five years [1] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Compliance Challenges - The era of "loophole trading" is ending, with the EU set to eliminate the tax exemption for imports under €150 starting in 2026, significantly increasing costs for small sellers [4] - The US is also tightening regulations, imposing additional tariffs on goods transshipped through Mexico, which will further squeeze profit margins for small and medium-sized enterprises [4][5] - Major players like Shein and Anker are responding by establishing manufacturing facilities in the US to navigate these new compliance barriers [6] Group 3: Manufacturing Resurgence in the US - The manufacturing sector in the US is experiencing a revival, particularly in the Rust Belt, driven by lower energy costs and favorable tax policies [7][8] - The cost structure has shifted, making US manufacturing competitive with Asia, especially in high-energy industries like semiconductors and chemicals [9] - A potential drop in interest rates could further accelerate the establishment of new factories, indicating a long-term trend towards nearshore manufacturing [9] Group 4: Business Adaptation and Market Realities - Companies must adapt to the reality that there are no permanent barriers in business; the focus should shift to proximity to markets and compliance with regulations [10] - Examples include major brands like Apple and Tesla relocating production to countries like India and Mexico, reflecting a broader trend of diversifying supply chains [10] Group 5: Strategies for Individuals - Individuals without factories or significant capital can leverage geographic arbitrage by earning in USD and spending in RMB, maximizing their financial leverage [11][12] - The strategy involves investing heavily in USD-denominated assets while enjoying lower living costs in China, effectively doubling their quality of life [12][13]