TMGM官网：美国CPI数据公布后，金价为何仍显疲态？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices (XAU/USD) have declined for the second consecutive day, retreating from historical highs due to easing inflation pressures indicated by the latest U.S. CPI data, which has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows an overall year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, below the expected 3.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6%, also lower than market consensus [3] - Economists suggest that the data may be distorted due to the U.S. government shutdown, but the signals of cooling inflation have weakened gold's safe-haven demand. The dollar has seen a rebound in buying for three consecutive days, reaching near weekly highs, which typically suppresses gold demand priced in dollars, further intensifying downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Market expectations regarding future monetary policy are characterized by a dual dynamic. Current expectations for easing policies have not been significantly diminished by the inflation data, with traders still betting on a potential adjustment of 63 basis points by 2026, which could provide some support for gold prices. However, the rising expectations for easing have also increased market risk appetite, leading to a shift of funds from the gold market to higher-risk assets, counteracting some of the support for gold and facilitating short-term depreciation [3] - Short-term focus is on upcoming U.S. economic data and statements from relevant officials. Data on existing home sales, revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and comments from key policymakers are likely to impact the dollar's movement, creating short-term trading opportunities for gold [3] Technical Analysis - Last Friday, gold experienced a false breakout in the $4350-$4355 range and fell below the 100-hour simple moving average, which is favorable for bearish positions [4] - However, there are conflicting signals in the oscillators on the hourly and daily charts. A cautious strategy is recommended, waiting for sustained selling below $4300 before considering deeper adjustments. A confirmed break below this level could test the weekly low of $4272-$4271 and support levels of $4260-$4255, with a potential further decline to the $4200 psychological level [6] Resistance Levels - Immediate resistance is found in the $4338-$4340 range. A breakthrough could challenge the historical high near $4380, and surpassing the $4400 mark may extend the previous strong trend [7]