消费券后，下轮“补贴”该补哪？专家建议：转向“投资于人”

Core Viewpoint - Improving income distribution is crucial for breaking the current constraints on consumer demand and driving economic growth, as highlighted by experts at the "2026: Forecast and Strategy" conference [1]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's economy is currently characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" dynamic, with insufficient domestic demand being a significant barrier to high-quality development [4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is hovering around zero, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced 27 consecutive quarters of negative growth, leading to structural deflationary pressures that weaken investment and job creation [4]. - The gap between actual economic growth (approximately 5%) and nominal growth indicates a persistent issue where statistical data does not align with public sentiment [4]. Group 2: Consumer Dynamics - Consumption, accounting for about 60% of GDP, is critical for economic stability, yet its growth has slowed from previous double-digit rates, indicating an urgent need for intervention [5]. - Experts attribute the core issue of weak domestic demand to the slowdown in income growth and the need for optimization in income distribution [8]. Group 3: Income Distribution Analysis - The Gini coefficient, a measure of income distribution fairness, is approximately 0.465, with a target of reducing it to below 0.4 by 2030 being proposed [8]. - The urban-rural income ratio stands between 2.3 and 2.4, which is still considered high compared to international standards, with a goal to reduce it below 2 during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - The share of labor income in primary distribution and the share of residents' income in national income have shown potential for significant improvement [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Income Growth - Experts suggest implementing proactive employment policies and investing in human capital to address structural employment issues exacerbated by technological changes [11]. - Recommendations include enhancing social security systems and fiscal policies to improve income redistribution, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [12]. Group 5: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The decline in various income types, including operational, wage, property, and transfer incomes, has directly suppressed consumer confidence and spending ability [9]. - To stimulate consumption, experts propose moving beyond traditional short-term stimulus measures to focus on long-term investments in human development and service consumption [13]. Group 6: Investment and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand requires effective investment coordination and deep systemic reforms, with a focus on stabilizing real estate and capital markets [15]. - Long-term economic growth is tied to technological innovation and industrial upgrades, which are essential for increasing income and creating high-quality jobs [15].