Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 09:21Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy (H-shares) with a target price reduced from HKD 13 to HKD 12, while keeping a "Neutral" rating for its A-shares with a target price lowered from RMB 14 to RMB 13, indicating a cautious outlook despite expected resilience in oil tanker profitability next year [1] Industry Summary - Global oil tanker capacity and demand are projected to grow by 2.2% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, but the actual supply-demand relationship remains tight [1] - Oil tanker demand is expected to increase by 0.9% year-on-year, while supply is anticipated to grow by only 0.7%, with a particularly tight situation for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) [1] - OPEC's stable production is expected to help maintain the current supply-demand dynamics [1] Structural Supply Constraints - Over 20% of the global oil tanker fleet is over 20 years old, with many vessels concentrated in the "shadow fleet," limiting their ability to participate in compliant trade [1] - Geopolitical tensions have further increased transportation demand, with approximately 18% to 20% of the global fleet involved in non-compliant transportation due to sanctions on vessels related to Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [1]