小摩2026年美股“作战图”：“选择性”牛市到来 板块轮动将惠及高质量增长及低波动性股票

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report emphasizes the opportunities and risks faced by various sectors in a K-shaped economy driven by AI, highlighting a constructive but selective investor sentiment [1][3] Group 1: Investment Themes - Key investment themes for 2026 include long-term growth driven by AI and data center expansion, infrastructure development, and a shift towards high-quality growth and operational resilience [1][4] - Companies with strong pricing power, long-term growth drivers, robust balance sheets, and those benefiting from transformative trends like data center expansion and infrastructure investment are recommended [1][4] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Selected stocks for 2026 include Arista Networks, Broadcom, Guidewire Software, and Palo Alto Networks among others across various sectors [2] - The report anticipates that the U.S. will remain a global growth engine, fueled by a resilient economy and an AI-driven supercycle leading to record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion [2][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The K-shaped economy is creating distinct winners and losers, with market sentiment indicators likely to remain volatile [3][4] - Despite concerns over AI bubbles and valuation, current high multiples are seen as justified by expected above-trend earnings growth and capital expenditure [4][5] Group 4: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects S&P 500 earnings growth of 13%-15% over the next two years, with an expected EPS of $315 in 2026 [5][10] - The anticipated capital expenditure cycle may extend beyond AI, with significant investments expected to address infrastructure and computing power imbalances [7][10] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The concentration of high-quality growth stocks is at a historical peak, with AI narratives mitigating concerns over macroeconomic weakness [8] - The U.S. business cycle is slowing but not indicating an end to the expansion, with various factors expected to support economic activity in the near term [9] Group 6: Policy Environment - A dynamic policy environment is expected to drive differentiation among stock themes, with ongoing U.S.-China competition and support for AI and electrification benefiting strategic resources [11] - Regulatory easing is anticipated to gain momentum, particularly in finance and energy sectors, which could foster growth and reduce deficits [11]