【UNforex财经事件】日本央行加息落地 市场转而评估后续节奏

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike to 0.75% has not led to a significant recovery in the forex market, with the yen weakening again despite the increase, indicating that the market had already priced in this policy adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly 30 years [1][2]. - The statement from the Bank of Japan emphasized a cautious approach, indicating that future rate hikes would depend on economic, inflation, and financial conditions [2]. - The current policy rate is still below the neutral range, suggesting that rapid convergence is unlikely in the short term [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's November CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, showing a slight decline from previous values, while core CPI remained at 3% [3]. - The core inflation measure excluding fresh food and energy decreased from 3.1% to 3%, indicating a marginal slowdown in inflation, which may affect aggressive rate hike expectations [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield surpassed 2% post-rate hike, the highest since the late 1990s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability given Japan's public debt nearing 250% of GDP [3]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - In the U.S., November CPI and core CPI were both below market expectations, reinforcing signals of cooling inflation and leading to increased expectations for future Fed rate cuts [4]. - Despite the positive inflation signals, the dollar index has rebounded, indicating a complex interplay of investor sentiment and demand for the dollar [4]. - The trading dynamics between USD/JPY are influenced by the Bank of Japan's gradual policy normalization and fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations, with limited upside for the yen in the absence of clearer signals from the Bank of Japan [4][5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The forex market is currently in a transitional phase with mixed policy signals, leading to structural trading rather than a clear trend [5]. - The lack of sustained driving forces for the yen and the resilience of the dollar suggest that market participants are focused on risk management amid ongoing volatility [5].