IC平台：美元指数三连涨突破98.50，涨势能否延续？

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious ahead of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index release, with the dollar index rising. However, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are increasing due to soft CPI data for November, which may put pressure on the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Sentiment - The dollar index (DXY) has risen for the third consecutive trading day, trading around 98.60 during the European session [3]. - Traders are closely watching the upcoming release of the December Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan [3]. Group 2: CPI Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 2.7%, below the market expectation of 3.1% [3]. - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6%, which is lower than the expected 3.0% and represents the slowest growth rate since 2021 [3]. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 73.3%, down from 75.6% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen from 24.4% to 26.6% [3]. Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - President Trump stated that the next Federal Reserve chair will be someone who believes in significant rate cuts, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [3].