人民币兑美元汇率升破7.04关口，创去年10月以来新高，业内认为后市可能破7

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including the decline of the US dollar index and increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Exchange Rate Movements - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke the 7.04 mark on December 18, 2024, marking a new high since October 2024, while the onshore rate also touched 7.04 [1]. - As of December 19, 2024, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate was reported at 7.03642, and the onshore rate at 7.0411 [1]. - Since late November, the onshore RMB has appreciated over 700 basis points from around 7.11 to 7.04, while the offshore RMB has risen nearly 800 basis points from 7.11 to approximately 7.03 [1]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has appreciated over 4%, while the onshore rate has risen more than 3.5% [2]. - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached a low of 7.42879 on April 8, 2024, before recovering as the Fed's interest rate stance became clearer [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term projections suggest that while the RMB may experience temporary fluctuations, it is expected to remain strong, with a potential to break the 7.0 mark due to seasonal settlement demands [3]. - By 2026, the RMB is anticipated to have room for appreciation, supported by seasonal settlement needs, although export support for the exchange rate may weaken [3]. - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate may fluctuate between 6.9 and 7.3, with a possibility of breaking 7.0 if the US dollar remains structurally weak [3].