Ge Long Hui·2025-12-19 10:51Core Insights - The U.S. photovoltaic (PV) market is experiencing a dual turning point of "demand explosion + capacity return" in 2025, driven by AI computing power expansion and a declining interest rate cycle, leading to a projected installation capacity of over 60GW in 2025 with a compound annual growth rate of 20% [1][2]. Demand Side - The U.S. renewable energy generation share is low at approximately 10%, significantly below the global average of 30%, indicating substantial room for energy structure transformation [2]. - The demand for PV is catalyzed by the electricity gap created by AI data centers and manufacturing recovery, as these centers operate continuously and require stable power sources, making PV a preferred clean energy option [2]. - The arrival of a declining interest rate cycle has amplified demand potential, as the internal rate of return (IRR) for PV projects is highly correlated with interest rates, leading to lower financing costs and increased investment willingness from developers [2]. Policy Support - The U.S. government is promoting domestic PV production through a combination of "manufacturing subsidies + trade protection," establishing a solid foundation for local capacity expansion [2]. - Although the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for distributed projects will gradually phase out after 2027, subsidies for manufacturing remain strong, with 4 cents per cell and 7 cents per module, reducing cost pressures for domestic manufacturers [2]. Domestic Capacity and Challenges - The planned domestic PV capacity in the U.S. is set to reach 60-70GW, with approximately 40GW already in production for modules, but only single-digit capacity for cells, highlighting a significant supply gap [3]. - The U.S. PV manufacturing faces challenges such as high labor, energy, and compliance costs compared to China, necessitating the adoption of more efficient and lower-cost technologies like HJT (Heterojunction Technology) [3][4]. HJT Technology Advantages - HJT technology requires only four core processes, resulting in lower operational costs (OPEX) of $5.4-5.5 million per GW, compared to $7.2 million for TOPCon technology, with a cost difference of 2 cents per watt [4]. - Even without government subsidies, HJT can achieve a profit of 1.6 cents per watt, indicating sustainable profitability post-subsidy reduction [5]. Patent Landscape - HJT technology has a patent advantage, as its core patents expired in 2015, allowing U.S. companies to expand capacity without the risk of patent litigation, unlike TOPCon and BC technologies [8]. - Several U.S. companies have announced HJT capacity expansion plans, totaling over 30GW, expected to materialize between 2026 and 2028, providing certainty for the supply chain [8][9]. Equipment Supply Chain - The surge in HJT capacity in the U.S. will benefit Chinese equipment manufacturers, who dominate the global HJT equipment market with over 70% market share, providing a competitive edge in terms of cost and service [10]. - U.S. companies prefer Chinese equipment due to significant cost advantages (60%-70% cheaper than overseas options) and faster service response times, which are crucial for meeting rapid production ramp-up needs [10]. Investment Opportunities - The expansion of domestic PV capacity and the adoption of HJT technology create clear investment themes focused on "equipment leaders + technology support," balancing performance certainty with growth potential [11]. - Key players include: - Maiwei Co., which leads in HJT equipment with over 70% market share, benefiting from U.S. capacity expansion [11]. - Aotwei, a leader in module packaging equipment, with ongoing demand from the 40GW of installed capacity [11]. - Gaomei Co., a core supplier of HJT wafer cutting equipment, benefiting from technology upgrades and U.S. capacity expansion [11]. Auxiliary Investment Themes - The demand for low-temperature silver paste and TCO targets will rise with HJT technology, driving exports of related materials [12]. - Companies producing photovoltaic glass and encapsulants are well-positioned to meet the supply chain needs of U.S. module production, leveraging global presence and cost advantages [12].