Group 1 - The unexpected weakness in U.S. inflation data for November and a surge in unemployment rates have led to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice next year [1][4] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to decrease by approximately 4 basis points this week, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield is projected to decline even more significantly due to expectations of a more dovish policy direction by 2026 [1][4] - The current market indicates a likelihood of two rate cuts next year, each by 25 basis points, with a 40% chance of a third cut, leading to an expansion of the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to 67 basis points, the widest since January 2022 [4] Group 2 - The upcoming major data release is not expected until January, and the announcement of federal holidays by Trump has introduced uncertainty for the Treasury's debt auction on December 24 [7] - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures expected bond market volatility, is at its lowest level since 2021, indicating that investors currently anticipate low volatility in the market [7]
经济数据助涨降息预期 美债料迎11月以来首次周线上涨
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 11:59