日本加息,对全球资金流影响几何
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-19 12:06

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, despite ongoing concerns about the shrinking population and tight labor market [3][4] - The central bank expects corporate profits to remain strong and anticipates that companies are likely to continue raising wages next year, with prices expected to rise moderately [2][4] - Following the interest rate hike, the Japanese yen depreciated against the US dollar, reaching a low of 156, which may be attributed to the lack of a clear interest rate path from the Bank of Japan and concerns over the government's fiscal policies [4][9] Group 2 - The Japanese stock market initially fell but later rebounded, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 505.71 points, or 1.03%, to 49,507.21 points, indicating that the market had already priced in the interest rate hike [10][12] - Foreign investors have significantly increased their net purchases of Japanese stocks, exceeding 5 trillion yen this year, driven by high tariffs in the US and expectations of corporate reforms in Japan [12] - Despite the positive net buying, the overall scale of foreign investment in Japanese stocks is only one-third of the levels seen in 2013, and concerns about the new prime minister's fiscal policies may slow down this momentum [12][13] Group 3 - The interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is expected to have spillover effects on global markets, particularly affecting the "yen carry trade," which involves borrowing low-cost yen to invest in higher-yielding global assets [14][15] - If the yield on the yen rises, the attractiveness of the carry trade may diminish, potentially leading to a revaluation of risk assets [14][15] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience post-announcement, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.12%, indicating that the immediate impact of the yen's depreciation has not yet triggered a sell-off in risk assets [15]