加息难改日债日元弱势，日本央行陷入抗通胀与稳经济两难处境

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years, amidst ongoing tensions between the government and the central bank regarding monetary policy direction [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The BOJ's last rate hike occurred in January, when the rate was increased from 0.25% to 0.5%, leading to the highest borrowing costs in 17 years [1] - The recent increase is seen as a signal of monetary policy normalization, with the BOJ indicating potential for further rate hikes depending on economic and inflation developments [3][4] Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's economy contracted by 2.3% year-on-year in Q3, exceeding expectations, while inflation remains high, with core CPI rising 3.0% in November [4][5] - The government is advocating for fiscal stimulus to enhance economic strength, contrasting with the BOJ's approach of tightening monetary policy [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate hike, the Japanese stock and bond markets experienced volatility, with the yen initially rising before falling, and long-term bond yields increasing significantly [6][7] - The 10-year bond yield rose by 2.86% to 2.017%, indicating a lack of confidence in the BOJ's ability to manage inflation without aggressive measures [6][7] Group 4: Global Implications - The divergence in monetary policy between the BOJ and the Federal Reserve is raising concerns about potential spillover risks to global markets, although experts believe systemic shocks are unlikely due to prior market adjustments [8][9] - The current environment is compared to last year's market turmoil, but experts suggest that the risks associated with carry trades are now evolving from "risk-free arbitrage" to "high-risk speculation" [8][9]