德央行预计德国经济将逐步复苏 2026年将增长0.6%

Core Viewpoint - The Deutsche Bundesbank forecasts a gradual recovery of the German economy by 2026 after years of economic stagnation, driven by increased government spending and a rebound in exports starting in the second quarter of 2026 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Bundesbank predicts that Germany's GDP will grow by 0.6% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.1% in 2028, after seasonal adjustments [2] - The bank emphasizes that expansionary fiscal policies will boost the economy in the short term but have limited effects on long-term productive capacity, necessitating structural reforms [2] Fiscal Policy and Debt - Increased spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to raise the deficit and debt levels, with the fiscal deficit rate projected to reach 4.8% by 2028 [2] - The Bundesbank reiterates the need to improve the debt brake mechanism and gradually reduce the deficit starting in 2030, along with decreasing defense-related debt [2]