日本央行加息至三十年新高，全球套利资本面临再配置

Group 1: Core Insights - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking a 30-year high and the sixth rate hike since 2000, driven by persistent inflation exceeding the 2% target for 43 consecutive months [1][2] - Despite the rate hike, Japan's economy showed signs of weakness, with a 0.6% contraction in GDP for the third quarter, indicating a fragile recovery [2] - The decision to raise rates reflects a balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, with potential implications for Japan's substantial public debt, which stands at 236% of GDP [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market response to the rate hike was relatively calm compared to previous hikes, attributed to the high level of expectation already priced in, leading to structural adjustments rather than systemic liquidity shocks [3][4] - Global capital flows are characterized by a dual track of "yen repatriation and dollar asset resilience," with Japan's rising domestic yields attracting some overseas funds without significantly impacting dollar assets [4] Group 3: Future Implications - The future path of interest rate hikes and ultimate rate targets is under scrutiny, with predictions suggesting rates could rise to 1.5% by the end of 2027, but the sustainability of Japan's massive government debt poses constraints on this trajectory [5][7] - The yen may receive short-term support from the rate hike, but long-term appreciation is limited by fiscal and trade deficits, with expectations for the USD/JPY exchange rate to remain between 150-160 [6][7] - The combination of rate hikes and fiscal stimulus presents inherent conflicts, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of rising interest payments and increased government borrowing, which could necessitate tax increases or social security cuts [7][8]