机构前瞻2026年港股：盈利驱动接棒，把握“新供给”主线

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain a resilient performance through 2026, driven by improving liquidity and corporate earnings recovery, despite recent volatility in global markets [1][4]. Market Performance - As of December 19, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have increased by 28.07%, 22.63%, and 22.10% respectively since the beginning of the year, outperforming major global indices like the S&P 500 and Germany's DAX [1]. Future Outlook - Both buy-side and sell-side institutions have optimistic expectations for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, anticipating a shift from valuation recovery to profit growth as the main driver of market performance [1][4]. - Dongwu Securities predicts that the Hong Kong stock market will continue to recover in 2026 due to several factors, including expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and improved corporate earnings [4]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies for 2026 should focus on a "core + satellite" approach, with the core strategy centered on AI-related sectors and two satellite strategies targeting essential consumer industries and innovative companies creating new demand [7]. - The investment focus should include technology and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on balancing growth and value styles [5][6]. Key Drivers - The anticipated recovery in corporate earnings is a crucial factor for the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations of further improvement in profitability [4][5]. - The market is expected to see continued inflows from both domestic and foreign investors, driven by a "wealth effect" [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is likely to experience a balanced style between large and small-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to dominate in 2026 [5]. - The research teams suggest a gradual or wave-like process for style switching, indicating that value and growth are not mutually exclusive [5]. Risk Considerations - Potential risks for the Hong Kong stock market include overly consensus-driven trading, significant fluctuations in U.S.-China monetary policy, and geopolitical influences [8].