2026年起，房地产“首迎抛售潮”？内行人：未来房价或超乎想象

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a shift, with an increase in sellers and a growing number of buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "selling wave" [1] - Homeowners are reassessing the costs associated with property ownership, focusing on annual expenses rather than potential appreciation [3] - The value of properties is increasingly influenced by population movement, with demand concentrated in areas with strong educational, transportation, and employment support [7][9] Group 1: Cost Considerations - Homeowners are now calculating the total cost of ownership, including mortgage interest, property fees, heating costs, and maintenance funds, which have become more apparent as income growth slows [5] - Many landlords find that rental income only partially covers mortgage payments, leading to a shift in mindset from "waiting" to "considering selling" when properties remain vacant for extended periods [5] Group 2: Changing Value Perception - The traditional view of property value based on city location is evolving, with significant disparities emerging between different areas within the same city [7] - Properties in areas with population inflow and strong demand are less likely to face selling challenges, while those in declining areas struggle to maintain value [9] Group 3: Shifts in Buyer Preferences - Buyers are increasingly focused on practical living conditions, such as commuting times and local amenities, rather than symbolic aspects of property ownership [11] - Older properties with outdated designs and poor management are becoming harder to sell, as buyers are more selective [13] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The anticipated "selling wave" may not lead to uniform price declines; instead, some properties may experience rapid price drops while others remain stable [15] - Properties in prime locations, smaller sizes, and with good liquidity show stronger resilience against market fluctuations, while larger, less desirable properties may face more significant price adjustments [17] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is entering a more rational and differentiated phase, where properties are viewed as long-term investments requiring careful consideration rather than short-term speculation [19] - The future trajectory of housing prices may exceed expectations, with opportunities and risks becoming unevenly distributed across the market [19]