美股消费最艰难的时刻过去了吗

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in both US and A-shares is facing significant challenges, with most gains in the stock market concentrated in AI-related companies, leaving ordinary consumers with limited benefits. This has led to a decline in middle-class spending power and consumer sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Many consumer stocks have underperformed the market this year, marking a rare occurrence where historically strong consumer stocks have lagged for two consecutive years [2]. - The recent downturn began in June 2024, erasing the long-term valuation premiums of many consumer stocks, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios around 10 times becoming common [3]. - Lululemon's Q3 earnings report showed low growth but slightly exceeded guidance expectations, indicating a potential stabilization after facing layoffs and tariffs. The company's stock surged by 10% in a single day, marking the first significant outperformance of non-essential consumer stocks against the broader market in a year [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The reduction of the middle class and ongoing layoffs are expected to reach a turning point, with the wealth effect from the stock market likely to eventually benefit all social strata [4]. - The consumer confidence index in the US has recently hit a record low, approaching the pandemic lows of 2022, indicating that the current period is particularly challenging for consumers [9]. - The K-shaped recovery is evident, with non-essential consumer goods, such as dining and sportswear, performing poorly, while grocery retailers like Walmart and Costco maintain better stock performance due to their lower-priced offerings [9][10]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Lululemon's Q3 report revealed a 2% decline in revenue from the US market, offset by over 40% growth in China, highlighting the reliance on international markets for performance [11]. - Other companies in the sportswear sector, such as Adidas and Puma, also reported declining revenues in the US, emphasizing the challenges faced domestically [11]. - The performance of companies like Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reflects the struggles of mid-tier consumer brands, with Q3 same-store sales declining and Q4 guidance lowered, indicating a bleak outlook for the US middle-class consumer market [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The worst times for US consumer stocks may be behind, with potential for recovery as PE ratios stabilize and market conditions improve [4][26]. - The upcoming 2026 World Cup in the US is expected to provide a marginal improvement for local consumer sectors, particularly in sports and leisure [25]. - Companies with significant overseas revenue are likely to recover faster from domestic challenges, with brands in cosmetics and sportswear expected to outperform those in the restaurant sector [26].